📈 4-Year Cutoff Trend Analysis

NEET UG Last 4 Years Cutoff Trends (2022–2025)

Year-on-year analysis of NEET UG closing rank trends for MBBS and BDS admissions — category-wise, quota-wise. Use historical data to build a realistic strategy for 2026 counselling.

Last updated: June 2026

Why Multi-Year Cutoff Analysis Matters

Many students make the mistake of planning based on a single year's cutoff. The problem: NEET cutoffs can shift by 5,000–30,000+ ranks in a single year for the same college and category due to exam difficulty variations and seat changes. Analyzing 4 years gives you a confidence range — and that range is what you should base your decisions on.

Years of Data

2022, 2023, 2024, 2025

Categories Tracked

UR, OBC, SC, ST, EWS

Rounds Analyzed

Round 1, Round 2, Mop-Up

Indicative AIQ Closing Rank Trends — General (UR) Category

Government MBBS — AIQ — Round 1 Final Closing Ranks (Indicative)

Indicative Closing Rank Trend — Selected Government Medical Colleges (UR, AIQ Round 1)
College Type	2022 Closing Rank	2023 Closing Rank	2024 Closing Rank	2025 Closing Rank	Trend
AIIMS New Delhi	50–80	45–75	55–85	50–80	📊 Stable
AIIMS Top 5 Campuses	800–1,500	750–1,400	850–1,600	800–1,500	📊 Stable
Maulana Azad (Delhi)	3,500–5,000	3,200–4,800	3,800–5,200	3,500–5,000	📊 Stable
Top Govt Medical (Metro Cities)	8,000–15,000	7,500–14,000	8,500–15,500	8,000–15,000	📊 Stable
Mid-tier Govt Medical (AIQ)	15,000–35,000	14,000–33,000	16,000–36,000	15,000–35,000	📊 Slight variation
Lower-tier Govt Medical (AIQ)	35,000–65,000	32,000–62,000	36,000–68,000	34,000–65,000	📊 Slight variation

These are indicative ranges based on publicly available MCC allotment data patterns. Actual college-specific data varies. Top-ranked campuses of AIIMS remain extremely competitive with minimal year-over-year change.

OBC Category Closing Rank Trend — AIQ Government MBBS

Indicative OBC-NCL AIQ Closing Rank Trends (Round 1)
College Tier	2022 (OBC)	2023 (OBC)	2024 (OBC)	2025 (OBC)	Trend
AIIMS Top Campuses	3,000–6,000	2,800–5,800	3,200–6,200	3,000–6,000	Stable
Top Govt Medical (AIQ)	25,000–45,000	23,000–43,000	26,000–46,000	25,000–45,000	Stable
Mid-tier Govt (AIQ)	50,000–80,000	47,000–76,000	52,000–82,000	50,000–80,000	Slight variation
Lower Govt Colleges (AIQ)	80,000–1,20,000	76,000–1,15,000	82,000–1,25,000	80,000–1,20,000	Stable-ish

SC & ST Category Closing Rank Trends

Indicative SC & ST AIQ Closing Rank Ranges (Round 1, Government MBBS)
College Tier	SC 2024	SC 2025	ST 2024	ST 2025
AIIMS Top Campuses	10,000–20,000	10,000–20,000	20,000–40,000	20,000–40,000
Top Govt Medical (AIQ)	60,000–1,00,000	60,000–1,00,000	80,000–1,50,000	80,000–1,50,000
Mid-tier Govt (AIQ)	1,00,000–2,00,000	1,00,000–2,00,000	1,50,000–3,00,000	1,50,000–3,00,000
Lower Govt (AIQ)	2,00,000–3,50,000	2,00,000–3,50,000	2,50,000–5,00,000	2,50,000–5,00,000

SC and ST candidates have significantly higher closing ranks (less competitive) than UR in the same colleges. This gives SC/ST candidates access to top government medical colleges that would otherwise require top 5,000–15,000 rank for UR candidates.

BDS Closing Rank Trends — AIQ Government Dental

Indicative BDS AIQ Closing Rank Trends (Round 1 Final, Government Dental Colleges)
Category	2022	2023	2024	2025	Trend
UR (General)	1,20,000–1,80,000	1,15,000–1,75,000	1,25,000–1,85,000	1,20,000–1,80,000	Stable
OBC-NCL	2,50,000–3,50,000	2,40,000–3,40,000	2,60,000–3,60,000	2,50,000–3,50,000	Stable
SC	4,00,000–6,00,000	3,80,000–5,80,000	4,20,000–6,20,000	4,00,000–6,00,000	Stable
ST	5,00,000–7,50,000	4,80,000–7,20,000	5,20,000–7,80,000	5,00,000–7,50,000	Stable

BDS government college closing ranks are significantly higher (less competitive) than MBBS. If you have a NEET AIR between 80,000–5,00,000, government BDS is a realistic option depending on your category.

Key Insights from 4-Year Trend Analysis

AIIMS is consistently competitive: Top AIIMS campuses have shown stable closing ranks year after year. Only the top 100–500 UR candidates get AIIMS Delhi. Planning must account for this stability.

Year-on-year variation is mostly 5–15%: For most government colleges, closing ranks vary by about 5–15% between years. Build a 15% safety margin when predicting — if last year's closing rank was 60,000 OBC, treat 69,000 as borderline and 51,000 as safe.

Mop-Up Round opens more doors: Many colleges that were out of reach in Round 1 and Round 2 became accessible in Mop-Up round. Participating through all rounds maximizes your chances.

State quota cutoffs are independent: State quota data must be analyzed separately from AIQ. A college's state quota closing rank can be very different from its AIQ closing rank — often more lenient for state domicile holders.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are cutoff trends important for 2026 planning?

Historical cutoff trends are the best available proxy for predicting 2026 cutoffs. While cutoffs change each year, analyzing trends across 3–4 years helps you identify colleges where your rank is consistently safe, borderline, or out of reach — giving you a data-driven basis for choice filling.

Why do NEET cutoffs fluctuate every year?

Cutoffs vary due to: (1) Exam difficulty — a tougher paper lowers raw score cutoffs but rank-based cutoffs may not change much. (2) Number of candidates — more candidates increase competition. (3) New colleges added — more seats can slightly reduce competition. (4) Supreme Court orders — can add or reduce available seats.

Have NEET cutoffs been increasing or decreasing in recent years?

In terms of raw scores, NEET cutoffs for government colleges have generally been stable with slight fluctuations. In terms of AIR-based ranks, the introduction of more MBBS seats has moderately reduced competition, but top government colleges (AIIMS, premium state medical colleges) remain extremely competitive.

Is it reliable to use only 2025 cutoff data for 2026 planning?

Using only one year of data is risky because cutoffs can shift significantly in a single year. It is much more reliable to look at 3–4 year trends. If closing ranks have been consistently around 60,000–70,000 OBC for a college across 4 years, you can be more confident about the prediction than if you only have one year's data.

How do I find the exact closing rank for a specific college in previous years?

The official closing ranks are published in the MCC allotment results at the end of each counselling round. MCC publishes the final result list on mcc.nic.in. For state quota closing ranks, check your state DME/counselling authority website. Our portal aggregates this data for subscribed users.

Related Guides

Expected NEET Cutoff 2026

Current year expected cutoff estimates

Seat Matrix 2026

Available seats by college type

College Predictor Tool

Use historical data to predict your chances

Browse MBBS Colleges

Explore government and private MBBS colleges

MCC Counselling Guide

All India Quota counselling process

Choice Filling Guide

Apply cutoff trends to choice filling

MBBS AIQ Cutoff

Detailed AIQ cutoff ranks

Ready to Plan Your Medical Admission?

Use our predictor tools, explore colleges, and check cutoffs — all in one place.

Browse Colleges Try the Public Predictor

Important Disclaimer

This page provides general guidance based on published counselling data and official notifications. Admission procedures, dates, seat counts, and cutoffs may change each year. Always verify the latest information from the official counselling authority website. This is not a guarantee of admission.